For many years, the concept of VUCA, which emphasizes volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity, has served as a navigational compass in a world full of change. She highlighted the main aspects that leaders needed to learn to cope with in order to successfully manage in conditions of uncertainty.

But the past three years have shown that the world faces new and more complex challenges, such as extreme climate change, geopolitical tensions and technological breakthroughs that are having a profound impact on the global economy and social structure. These events revealed the limitations of VUCA in describing the current state of the world.

The BANI concept arose as a response to these new challenges. It stands for fragility (B - brittleness), anxiety (A - anxiety), nonlinearity (N - nonlinearity) and incomprehensibility (I - incomprehensibility). Unlike VUCA, which emphasizes external uncertainty and complexity, BANI focuses on internal feelings of instability and anxiety caused by unpredictable and large-scale change. This concept emphasizes that in the modern world it is important not only to adapt to changes, but also to be prepared for fundamentally new challenges that may seem incomprehensible.

Definition of BANI 

The author of the new concept was futurist scientist, professor at the University of California, Jamet Cassio. In 2020, he came up with the idea of describing reality using a new combination of letters - BANI.

“We live in an era of chaos, in an era of intense, almost violent rejection of structure. It's not just instability, it's a reality that seems to actively resist trying to understand what the hell is going on."

The new concept helps to better understand what is happening in the world now and respond to the challenges of modern reality. We have experienced stress before, reacting to changes in society, the economy, and technology. But today we have to face changes that are so different from previous challenges that it is absolutely unsettling. And they only increase the stress that we were already experiencing.

BANI is an abbreviation of four letters, each of which, as in the case of VUCA, carries its own meaning and affects the understanding of the concept.

B - Brittle

It seems that in this world, a catastrophe can happen at any moment - even the most reliable things break easily, suddenly fail or are destroyed in an instant. Even if it seems that the system is unshakable and works like a clock, do not flatter yourself, perhaps it is already on the verge of existence.

The illusion of permanence makes us relax. We don't think about what we will do in case of problems, and this does not allow us to cope with them. We missed some little thing - and now the whole system becomes fragile. Our desire for maximum efficiency leads to this - and this is not only about business, but about all areas of life.

Moreover, the collapse of the system in one place on the planet, taking into account the close interconnections in this world, can lead to a large-scale wave that will cover the markets of all countries on all continents.

What solutions?

Have an alternative even for those systems that seem quite reliable. Plan B won't hurt either way.

Create sustainable systems, including through the development of metaskills. These include awareness, a proactive position, the ability to self-learn, develop thinking and flexibility. It is also necessary to form societies in which people are united by values and can provide each other with the necessary support.

In a fragile world, it is possible to develop and adapt to external conditions through strengthening teams. An organization will reach a new level of sustainability if it implements tools such as developing a culture of interaction, investing in training, and introducing a distributed management structure. Collaborative activities are also our everything. It will help strengthen communication between teams and create a basis for interaction.

A – Anxious

This is about our fears of making the wrong choice. In an uncertain world, there is a feeling of intense anxiety and persistent helplessness. And as a result, we cannot make a decision because we are afraid that it will not lead us anywhere good.

In a troubled world, a person:

• Constantly watches the news in anticipation of the next catastrophe or, conversely, ignores any information from the outside world.
• Tends to be passive in fear of making the wrong decision, and this leads him to depression.
• Experiences despair, thinking that there will be no other chance to make an important decision.
• Experiences a feeling of dependence on other people who may make the wrong decision for him, with negative consequences.

Anxiety is one of the most common conditions we have. And we encounter it both in business and in personal life. We constantly feel like we have to make a decision immediately. And the understanding that all systems in the world have become very fragile makes us constantly feel anxious.

What solutions?

Raising awareness is an effective way to deal with anxiety. If we know about something, then we can control it. And if we can control, then we can manage. Including your anxiety.

Developing empathy in an organization also helps overcome anxiety. This also includes the development of communication skills between employees, which will create a solid foundation for the future. As we have seen during the coronavirus pandemic, having emotional intelligence is very important in times of crisis. 

We ourselves form our own view of the world. And it is in our power to make it positive. This will help to distance yourself from situations, the ability to consider positive aspects, find opportunities for improvement and creatively approach problem solving.

N – nonlinear

Cause-and-effect relationships are broken, they break both in time and in perception and correlation.

In our current world, events already appear unrelated to each other. The proportions between causes and effects are violated: the results are always significantly less (or more) than expected. We wait for the world's reaction to our actions, but it comes very late or turns out to be completely unnoticeable. 

Our efforts do not affect the result; the Pareto principle no longer applies. And if you cannot be sure of anything, then long-term plans (for 2 or 5 years) do not make any sense.

What solutions?

Free yourself from expectations in a non-linear world. We need to approach people, events, and technologies openly and keep them fresh.

Rigid plans today only harm business. Companies that do not implement innovative solutions and use traditional tools and techniques often lag far behind their competitors and find it difficult to quickly adapt to changes in the external environment. You must always be ready to take a few steps in one direction or another.

An excellent choice is to abandon rigid plans in favor of strategic goals for the long term. You can always find non-linear ways to achieve your goals - it doesn’t work that way with plans. Goals act as a guideline that allows you to quickly adapt, change tactics, and at the same time not stray from the desired path.

I – incomprehensible

It is very difficult, or even impossible, to understand.

We are looking for answers to our questions, relying on the huge layers of information available to us. We find them, but it turns out that these answers make no sense, they do not help us make decisions and move on. This is where misunderstanding arises.

There is a constant change of ideas and concepts. And these changes are so rapid that there is a feeling that there is less and less understanding.

A large amount of information no longer helps to understand what is happening more clearly. On the contrary, the greater the information “noise”, the more difficult it is to find the truth. We still have the ability to make sense of the world, but there is an overload of information.

What solutions?

If we come across something incomprehensible, we try to find the necessary information that will help us come to a decision. Today we need to rely more on intuition.

Critical thinking will allow you to cut out unnecessary information in a timely manner. In addition, it is necessary to learn to accept information that contradicts existing ideas, as well as stereotypes, in any area of life.

New technologies such as AI and big data will help process large volumes of information.

It turns out that BANI offers us not to solve problems, but to work with reactions to them. Behind each letter in this new abbreviation lies the answers we need:

• The fragility of things creates a need for strength and stability.
• When we feel anxious, we need attention and sympathy.
• Nonlinearity implies a need for adaptability and context.
• If there is a misunderstanding, it means we need intuition and transparency.

The BANI concept is a new language that helps describe and understand what is happening. And this becomes the basis for further development and development of new approaches.

What lies behind all this for business?

The crisis in our usual understanding has today become a stable model of the new reality.

Therefore, the conclusion is very simple: the way managers previously responded to the crisis no longer has an effect.

In previous times, with the onset of difficulties, managers strengthened control, took all powers into their own hands and introduced an authoritarian style in management. Today it is necessary to focus on developing a culture of cooperation, as well as creating effective internal communications.

Here are some key recommendations:

Strengthening resilience: Build resilience at both the individual and organizational levels. This includes developing flexible strategies that can adapt to change and creating a culture of continuous learning and innovation.

Psychological support: Because BANI focuses on anxiety and uncertainty, it is important to provide support to employees by promoting their psychological well-being and strengthening emotional resilience.

Developing Adaptive Leadership: Managers should develop adaptive leadership skills, which include a willingness to change, the ability to make quick decisions in the face of uncertainty, and effectively manage teams during times of crisis.

Investments in technology: Technology plays a key role in adapting to rapidly changing environments. Investing in new technology solutions such as artificial intelligence and automation can help improve an organization's efficiency and agility.

Scenario planning: In conditions of non-linearity and incomprehensibility of events, scenario planning becomes a critical tool. Developing different scenarios will help you anticipate and prepare for potential future challenges in advance.

Flexibility and scalability: Develop business models and processes that can be easily adapted or scaled as the environment changes.

Adapting to the world described by the BANI concept requires managers not only to reconsider management strategies, but also to change the approach to doing business, with an emphasis on sustainability, flexibility and innovation.